expected value

简明释义

预期价值

英英释义

例句

1.Investors often calculate the expected value 期望值 of different stocks to make informed decisions.

投资者通常计算不同股票的期望值 expected value 以做出明智的决策。

2.When assessing risk, consider the expected value 期望值 of potential outcomes.

在评估风险时，要考虑潜在结果的期望值 expected value 。

3.The expected value 期望值 of a game can determine its fairness.

游戏的期望值 expected value 可以决定其公平性。

4.The expected value 期望值 of a lottery ticket is typically much lower than the ticket price.

彩票的期望值 expected value 通常远低于票价。

5.In gambling, the expected value 期望值 of a bet helps determine whether it's a good idea to place that bet.

在赌博中，期望值 expected value 可以帮助判断下注是否值得。

作文

In the realm of mathematics and statistics, the concept of expected value is crucial for making informed decisions based on uncertain outcomes. The expected value can be understood as the average or mean value of a random variable when considering all possible outcomes, weighted by their probabilities. This concept is not only applicable in theoretical scenarios but also has practical implications in various fields such as finance, insurance, and even everyday decision-making.To illustrate the concept of expected value, let’s consider a simple example involving a game of chance. Imagine you are playing a lottery where you have a 1 in 100 chance of winning $100. To calculate the expected value of playing this lottery, you would multiply the probability of winning by the amount won and then subtract the probability of losing multiplied by the amount lost. In this case, the calculation would look like this:Expected Value = (1/100 * $100) + (99/100 * -$1) = $1 - $0.99 = $0.01.This means that for every ticket you buy, you can expect to gain an average of one cent in the long run. Although you might win big on occasion, the expected value suggests that playing the lottery is not a profitable strategy over time.The expected value is particularly useful in finance, where investors must make decisions based on potential risks and rewards. For instance, when evaluating two investment options, an investor can calculate the expected value of each option by considering the various outcomes and their associated probabilities. This allows them to make a more informed choice about where to allocate their resources.Moreover, the expected value can help businesses in risk management. Insurance companies use this concept to determine premiums and payouts. By assessing the expected value of claims based on historical data, they can set prices that ensure profitability while providing coverage to policyholders.In addition to its applications in finance and insurance, the expected value plays a significant role in game theory and decision-making processes. In strategic situations where multiple players are involved, understanding the expected value of different strategies can lead to better outcomes. Players can evaluate the potential gains and losses associated with their choices, allowing them to adopt strategies that maximize their overall expected utility.Despite its importance, many people overlook the expected value in their daily lives. For instance, when faced with a decision to purchase an extended warranty for a product, consumers often fail to consider the expected value of their investment. By analyzing the likelihood of needing repairs and the costs associated with those repairs, one can determine whether the warranty is worth the expense.In conclusion, the concept of expected value is a powerful tool for decision-making in uncertain environments. Whether in gambling, investing, or everyday choices, understanding the expected value helps individuals and organizations make rational decisions that align with their goals. By incorporating the expected value into our thought processes, we can navigate the complexities of life with greater confidence and clarity.

在数学和统计学领域，期望值的概念对于基于不确定结果做出明智决策至关重要。期望值可以理解为随机变量在考虑所有可能结果时的平均值或均值，按其概率加权。这个概念不仅适用于理论场景，而且在金融、保险乃至日常决策等各个领域都具有实际意义。为了说明期望值的概念，让我们考虑一个简单的机会游戏示例。想象一下你正在玩一种彩票，你有1/100的机会赢得100美元。要计算玩这种彩票的期望值，你需要将赢得的概率乘以赢得的金额，然后减去失去的概率乘以失去的金额。在这种情况下，计算如下：期望值 = (1/100 * 100美元) + (99/100 * -1美元) = 1美元 - 0.99美元 = 0.01美元。这意味着每购买一张彩票，从长远来看，你可以预计平均获得一美分。尽管你偶尔可能会赢得大奖，但期望值表明，长期而言，买彩票并不是一种盈利策略。期望值在金融领域尤其有用，投资者必须根据潜在风险和回报做出决策。例如，在评估两个投资选项时，投资者可以通过考虑各种结果及其相关概率来计算每个选项的期望值。这使他们能够更明智地选择资源的分配。此外，期望值还可以帮助企业进行风险管理。保险公司利用这一概念来确定保费和赔付。通过评估基于历史数据的索赔期望值，他们可以设定确保盈利的价格，同时为投保人提供保障。除了在金融和保险中的应用外，期望值在博弈论和决策过程中也发挥着重要作用。在多个参与者的战略情境中，理解不同策略的期望值可以导致更好的结果。参与者可以评估与他们选择相关的潜在收益和损失，从而采用最大化总体期望效用的策略。尽管期望值的重要性显而易见，但许多人在日常生活中却忽视了这一点。例如，当面临购买产品延长保修的决定时，消费者往往未能考虑其投资的期望值。通过分析需要维修的可能性及其相关费用，可以确定保修是否值得花费。总之，期望值的概念是一个在不确定环境中做出决策的强大工具。无论是在赌博、投资还是日常选择中，理解期望值帮助个人和组织做出符合其目标的理性决策。通过将期望值纳入我们的思维过程，我们可以更自信和清晰地应对生活的复杂性。